« Use of Differential Decision Criteria for Preferred and Nonpreferred Conclusions | Main | Would you throw good money after bad? »

May 21, 2006

How good are your estimation skills?

HARVARD CENTER FOR RISK ANALYSIS QUIZ ON CAUSES OF DEATH

hahvahdRisk.jpg

The folks at Risk World let me know about this mini-quiz on odds of various causes of death at Harvard's Center for Risk Analysis.

It's a lot more fun if you take the time before going to that page to complete the following quiz.

The annual risk of dying from the following causes is 1 in ___:
heart disease ___
cancer ___
stroke ___
accidents of all kinds ___
motor vehicle accident ___
Alzheimer’s disease ___
alcohol ___
suicide ___
homicide ___
food poisoning ___
drowning ___
fire ___
bicycle accident ___
lightning ___
bioterrorism ___

Now go take the quiz.

Risks of death are a popular topic among judgment and decision making crowd, the most common reference being to:

Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein (1982), Facts Versus Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk, in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Posted by dggoldst at May 21, 2006 11:11 AM